Globally the average mobile user consumed 201 MB a month in 2012. In North America, we binged on more than triple that amount. By 2017, Cisco says, those numbers will increase by a factor of 10.
Last year when Cisco released the 2012 mobile VNI forecast, I noted that they had been building castles in the air, and needed to put foundations under them. In particular I was concerned about substantial changes in the assumed share of offloaded traffic, which had changed dramatically between the 2011 and 2012 reports. Specifically, in 2011 Cisco had estimated that in 2010 21% of US smartphone and tablet traffic was offloaded from mobile-connected devices, i.e. apparently excluding WiFi-only tablets and that would increase to 30% by 2015. In 2012 they estimated that 49% of this traffic was offloaded in 2011 and that would decrease to 46% in 2016. Now in the latest report actually in the VNI tool stats, not the report itself, Cisco estimate that:
Makes a welcome change from “exponential” and similar hyperbole in the past.
Cisco has put out its revised 2012-2017 forecasts for mobile data traffic. I’m horribly busy today so I can’t put out a forensic analysis or listen in live to the webcast.
However, a couple of headlines:
Cisco has reported global mobile data growth of 70% during 2012, and revised down its 2013 mobile data traffic forecasts from 2.4EB to 1.6EB, and 2016 forecasts from 10.8EB to 7.4EB (EB=Exabyte). I think it’s still being over-enthusiastic, but this is a welcome return to a sense of reality.
As I noted when AT&T announced its deal with T-Mobile a couple of weeks ago, one of the most interesting facts in AT&T’s presentation was that it included significant detail on the traffic growth experienced on AT&T’s wireless network. Back in January, T-Mobile also put forward its own expectations that traffic would grow at 60% p.a. between 2010 and 2015.
(Reuters) – Cisco Systems fourth quarter results may not renew the spark in Wall Street’s fading love affair with the network equipment maker, but for those investors looking for a steady and predictable relationship the company is unlikely to disappoint.
Most analysts shrugged off Cisco’s competitive threats from technological developments such as software defined networking (SDN), an area where VMware recently made a major acquisition, in the near-term.
“Longer term, while the competitive threat from SDN seems real and could potentially undermine some of Cisco’s core businesses, it is still a long way from being broadly deployed across networks,” BMO’s Long said.
VMware said last month it would acquire privately held Nicira Inc for $1.05 billion. Nicira sells software that lets customers create virtual networks that can operate independently of underlying physical networks in what is called software-defined networking.
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), the largest maker of computer-networking gear, faces fresh threats to its profit margins from a new breed of software that’s helping customers handle data traffic with fewer switches and routers.
Technology from startups such as Arista Networks Inc., Big Switch Networks Inc. and Cyan Inc. is designed to help businesses run their computer networks more efficiently, lessening the need for the kinds of devices that make up most of Cisco’s revenue.